Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Anthropogenic Global Warming is a Fallacy-part 2 of many

Okay, this is taking a little longer than I thought. However, the research has been pretty enlightening.

Last time, we looked at some of the problems with the IPCC model, which Gore uses to predict the weather changes that will cause catastrophic events across the globe. Today, we will look at the second piece of evidence. The linchpin of his argument, the Vostok Ice Core charts. He shows a chart that covers the past 420,000 years and looks like this.

We can clearly see the rise and fall of temperature and CO2 for thousands of years. Looking at this chart, one would expect this rise and fall to continue, since that is what has happened in the past. It's like the rising and setting of the sun. There is some time variation, but it happens regularly. Those who argue that there is anthropogenic global warming, however, seem to think the sun will not rise tomorrow. They assume the cycle is broken because of CO2 levels.

There is a relation between temperature and CO2 levels. Notice the correlation between CO2 and temperature changes in the chart. As the temperature gets warmer, we see an increased level of CO2. As the temperature change goes down, we see a decrease in CO2. Gore and his climate scientists have chosen to state that CO2 has enough influence on our temperature to cause havoc over the next 50 to 100 years.

Well, unfortunately the above chart has too wide of a data spread to show whether CO2 really has that much of an effect on temperature. Instead, lets look at a smaller segment of the chart. Since modern times have provided more accurate information, lets look at information from just the last 18,000 years. This gives us enough time to see historic trends, yet still see more about the actual relationship.

Notice a couple of things from this chart. It fits with the initial chart data, showing a correlation between CO2 and temperature change. It also fits the trend displayed for modern times in the original chart. However, when we look closer, we see something interesting. Look specifically around 14,000, 11,000, 8,000, 7,500, 4,500 and our modern times. Notice anything?

What you're seeing are multiple places where temperature changes and CO2 changes do not react in direct correlation with each other. In 14,000, temperature rises before CO2. A similar phenomenon happens around 11,000, with temperature spiking and falling, followed by a much shallower rise and fall in CO2. Around 8,000, temperature changed rapidly with no movement of CO2. In 7,500 CO2 falls and rises with no change in temperature. In 4,500, we see another temperature spike that last a bit longer. Again, though, there was no change in CO2. Only a little later do we see CO2 levels rise.

The Modern data is another indicator that shows the weak relationship between CO2 and climate change. CO2 is rising at a faster rate, and to higher levels, than ever. This is a fact. However, where is the corresponding climate change? Remember, Gore stated that CO2 was causing the massive changes and rising temperatures of modern times. Based on the data, though, this doesn't seem to be true.

So, if the model isn't accurate, and Gore's hypothesis about CO2 is not correct, what can be causing global warming? More to come next time about relationships between the sun, our global temperatures and temperatures of other planets in our solar system.